LONDON / ConSynSer / – On October 21, Wednesday, Brent crude futures increased by $1.21 to reach $110 per barrel, according to Reuters, driven by ongoing Middle East tensions that kept oil markets tense. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate crude advanced over $1, climbing to $99 a barrel. Early in the trading session, escalating incidents involving tanker ships and Saudi energy facilities pushed prices higher, but gains were later moderated by signs of recovering Gulf export activity. Compared to the previous year, Brent is nearly 80% higher.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards reported that naval mines impeded three tankers traveling through routes not authorized by Tehran. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency confirmed a vessel was struck near Oman. Yemen’s Houthi movement claimed responsibility for attacks targeting Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu and the Shaybah oilfield, as well as assaults on airports in Riyadh and Abha. These events intensified concerns over supply disruptions passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Throughout the day, trading remained volatile. Brent briefly surrendered its gains, dipping below $108 a barrel, while WTI temporarily reached $100 before falling back below $98. Freight rates in the Persian Gulf remained at record highs, exerting upward pressure on prices. Over the past month, Brent has gained approximately 8%. After dropping to $100.34 in September, Brent rebounded, and the current price remains significantly above that level, indicating persistent strength.
Hormuz export activity near prewar levels
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz are approaching levels seen before the outbreak of the war. Data from tanker tracking firms Kpler and Vortexa show that Middle Eastern crude exports have been rising since summer. Shippers have increased shuttle movements through Hormuz and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Additionally, Saudi Arabia’s crude exports increased by 7.9% in August, reaching their highest point since March, helping to limit Wednesday’s price rally.
Market participants also analyzed recent U.S. inventory data. The Energy Information Administration reported a crude stock decline of just over 3 million barrels last week, smaller than the 4.9 million-barrel draw initially reported by the American Petroleum Institute. U.S. crude production slightly decreased to around 13.27 million barrels per day from 13.68 million the previous week. The mixed data provided a complex picture of U.S. supply levels.
Expected diesel shipment and recent drone attack impact
A deal between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to see Russia send its first diesel cargo to the United States on Thursday. Trump recently suspended Graham Act penalties, lifting tariffs that would have affected Russian fuel exports. Meanwhile, Ukraine has intensified drone strikes targeting Russian oil infrastructure, signaling Kyiv’s intention to prevent Moscow’s diesel export expansion, according to Trading Economics.
On October 22, oil prices extended their upward trend following a drone strike on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field that resulted in two casualties. Brent surpassed $111 per barrel, while WTI moved above $99. The U.S. government advised some personnel and their families to evacuate U.S. embassies in Saudi Arabia. Traders continue monitoring Gulf shipping routes, Saudi oil supply, and Russian fuel exports to anticipate the next directional move in prices.