NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – U.S. consumer confidence experienced its lowest level since April 2014 during September, marking the continuation of a three-month downward trend in household sentiment. According to The Conference Board, the Consumer Confidence Index decreased by 6.7 points to reach 81.9. The figure for August was revised downward to 88.6. The survey, conducted from September 1 through September 23, reflected weaker assessments of current conditions and more cautious outlooks for the upcoming six months across both measures.
The Present Situation Index declined by 7.9 points to 109.3, indicating a dip in perceptions of business and labor markets. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index dropped by 5.9 points to 63.6, marking its third consecutive monthly decrease. This index gauges consumer outlook on income, employment, and business conditions over the next half-year. September’s decrease followed similar declines in July and August, pulling the overall confidence index further below earlier-year levels.
Data from the Conference Board survey revealed a noticeable shift in consumers’ views of current business conditions. Only 18.5% of respondents described conditions as good, down from 18.8% in August. Conversely, the share considering conditions bad increased to 20.4% from 17.3%. Sentiments about the labor market also softened, with 23.6% stating that jobs were plentiful, down from 24.5%, while 21.9% said jobs were hard to find, up from 20.3%.
Inflation expectations climb amid persistent fuel costs
In September, consumers reported higher inflation expectations. The average 12-month forecast rose by 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, and the median increased to 5.1%. Separate federal data indicated that consumer prices rose 3.4% in August compared to the previous year. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that gasoline prices increased by 3.9% during August. AAA also reported a national average of approximately $4.46 per gallon for regular gasoline on September 29.
Spending plans across various categories showed signs of restraint, with a slight decline in six-month moving averages for automobile and home purchases. Expectations for expenditure on services, such as hotels, movies, air travel, and amusement parks, also decreased. However, travel plans for vacations remained relatively strong, with 42.6% of consumers intending to take a trip within six months. This figure increased by 0.5 percentage points from August, predominantly reflecting an uptick in domestic travel.
Expectations for jobs and income continue to weaken
Optimism regarding business conditions, employment, and income prospects declined further. Only 15.9% of consumers anticipated an improvement in business conditions, down from 17.0% in August. Meanwhile, the proportion expecting conditions to deteriorate rose to 25.4% from 23.3%. Expectations for job availability also diminished, with 14.0% expecting more jobs and 28.4% forecasting fewer opportunities. Income outlooks softened as well, with 17.9% expecting increases and 15.4% predicting declines over the next six months.
The survey results revealed broader strain on household finances, with net views of current family financial situations turning negative for only the second time since the measure’s inception four years ago. Confidence levels fell across all age groups and nearly all income brackets on a six-month moving average. Toluna conducted the online monthly survey for The Conference Board, with the preliminary September results closing on September 23. The next Consumer Confidence Index is scheduled for release on October 27.